Islamic Courts in Somalia, Establish "Shadow Governments"

Via the CT Blog -

I spoke with a military intelligence officer this morning about the situation in Somalia. He reported that the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has abandoned Kismayo and dispersed. Kismayo is one of Somalia's strategic port cities: after abandoning Kismayo, the ICU seemingly no longer controls any strategic cities. However, the group does control a sizeable geographic area, both in the north and south of the country. The ICU primarily controls smaller towns and villages.

My source reports that even in areas that the ICU controls, it is giving up active control and forming "shadow governments." The term "shadow government" refers to Mafia-style governance, similar to what Al Capone had in Chicago in the 1920s: in these areas the ICU doesn't have formal control, but is the real power. This mirrors the Taliban's position in much of northern Pakistan. The main advantage the ICU derives from moving to shadow government is that it doesn't have to actually govern: ICU representatives don't have to appear publicly and don't have to make any of the public works run. Instead, they can focus all their effort on insurgent campaigns -- which, all told, is easier than managing a fully-functioning government. Also, a functioning government has to exist in a place that can be targeted. A shadow government, in contrast, can just disperse and regroup.

There are also disadvantages to a shadow government. It's difficult for a shadow government to mass to control territory because once it does, it can be targeted. A second disadvantage is that the tools the shadow government uses to control the population are negative rather than positive. (For positive tools that the ICU used, remember how it managed to gain the support of Somalia's business community.) Instead of having anything positive to offer, the shadow government's position is that Somalis need to cooperate with it or they'll be killed. These negative tools of control run the risk of alienating the population. However, if the country slips back into chaos, these negative controls may actually be seen by the population as positive means to stability.