Can a Divided Vote Bring Pakistan Together?

Via WashingtonPost -

While most Americans are closely watching their state primaries, Pakistanis are getting ready to vote in a parliamentary election on Monday. On the ballot are Pakistan's stability, President Pervez Musharraf's political fate, and the future of the U.S-Pakistan strategic relationship. An environment of rising domestic terrorism, economic uncertainty, and political polarization has made Pakistan a top national security priority for all leading American presidential candidates. The question of the day is, Who will win?

But don’t expect a blowout victory on Monday. Indeed, a national consensus government looks increasingly likely – and that may just be what Pakistan needs. Here is why:

The political parties supporting Musharraf – PML(Q), MQM, and JUI(F) – want to elect him for another five years. They want to reaffirm the president's victory last November, support his prior unconstitutional move to impose a state of emergency, and continue his economic reforms. Musharraf's rivals – late Benazir Bhutto's PPP and Nawaz Sharif's PML(N) – want to impeach him. There is only one problem: each of these coalitions is highly unlikely to win the required two-thirds majority of parliamentarians. The traditional PML(Q) and PML(N) strongholds in the province of Punjab, and PPP's base in the Sindh province, will simply not yield the big wins needed to pass any revolutionary legislation.

The Pakistani parliament has 342 members, including 10 seats held exclusively for non-Muslims and 60 seats for women. To keep Musharraf in power, or to impeach him, either coalition will need 228 members (about 67%). The only two parties that can join forces to come up with this magic number are Musharraf's PML(Q) and the late Bhutto's PPP. In 2002, the Musharraf-supported PML(Q) won the largest number of parliamentarians, but the PPP edged out a victory in the popular vote.

There are signs that that alliance is possible: PPP co-chair Asif Ali Zardari said he would not rule out working with Musharraf. Mushahid Hussain, information secretary for PML(Q), said this week that his party will support freeing jailed judges and lawyers before the elections.