Intel Report: U.S. Influence is on the Decline

Via LATimes -

A new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies predicts that American influence in the world will decline over the next two decades as surging powers such as China and India, as well as independent entities including tribes and criminal networks, gain international clout.

The report, meant to serve as a guidepost for President-elect Barack Obama's administration, offers a vision of a future in which the U.S., while the most powerful, is but "one of a number" of important players in the world.

Describing the findings, Tom Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for analysis, said there would be a "diminished gap between the United States and everybody else. . . . The unipolar moment is over."

The report, titled "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World," represents the U.S. intelligence community's most comprehensive examination to date of long-term security issues. It sees a possible increase in terrorist violence even as support for extremism starts to wane.

Its central finding is that the U.S. will remain the world's foremost economic and military force, but its standing as an unrivaled superpower will probably diminish as a "global multipolar system" emerges.

China stands to have more effect on the world over the next 20 years than any other country, the report says, and India will strive to represent one of the world's economic poles.

How the world adjusts to their new roles will be up to the two countries, the report says.

"China and India must decide the extent to which they are willing and capable of playing increasing global roles and how each will relate to the other," the report says.

Japan could be caught between U.S. and Chinese influence, and Russia could grow or stall, depending on the economic decisions it makes, the report says. Brazil is poised to gain in influence and wealth.

The spread of influence could lead to larger roles for countries such as Iran, Indonesia and Turkey, the report adds.

The overall result will leave "less room for the U.S. to call the shots," the report says, and U.S. military power will be limited by the growing use by others of irregular warfare tactics and the proliferation of long-range precision weapons.

The document predicts the international alliances and networks that have dominated global affairs since the end of World War II "will be almost unrecognizable by 2025."