Sunday, September 11, 2011

STRATFOR Dispatch: Somalia's Transitional Federal Government and al Shabaab

Analyst Mark Schroeder examines the limited governing ability of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government even though African Union Peacekeeping Mission is providing robust security against al Shabaab in Mogadishu.


Beyond the current status of the TFG, Mark outlines the three main factions that make up the collective al Shabaab...
The three main groups or factions that once contributed to al Shabaab are really separate entities right now. The leader of the transnationalist faction of al Shabaab, led by an individual named Godane Abu Zubayr, he continues to espouse jihadist rhetoric in calling for a continued fight against the TFG. The two other main factions that comprise al Shabaab: one is led by a Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur; the other led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. Aweys’ faction is more commonly known as Hezbollah Islam.

Each of these two groups are pulled back to their respective home areas. For Robow, that is around the city of Baidoa in the Bay and Bakool regions. For Aweys, it is in Afgoye in the greater Mogadishu area or Bandadir region. Those groups, while they are still making public appearances, public statements, carrying out occasional defensive-oriented clashes, are not really taking any fight whatsoever to the TFG.

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